We recommend using a modern web browser such as Google Chrome or Microsoft Edge with their default settings.
One of the challenge points on the Better World Books 2017 Reading […]
Hello, I'm an eBook!
ATTENTION: This item is an eBook. It can be read on iOS, Android, MAC and PC's with a supported eReader. It is not a physical book. eBooks are available via download immediately after you've checked out.
Shipped from other seller
May ship separately
Ships separately from Better World Books suppliers
Last Page Books-Columbus
One Planet Books
Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.
Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.
Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.
To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.
This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Our best deal on used books 3 for $10 and just $3 each additional book. Shop and Save
Gift Certificate = Happy Friend + Books donated to families in need. Make Someone Happy »
We match every book you purchase with a book donation. Learn more »
Sign up now to get news, sales and special promotions!
© Better World Books (BetterWorldBooks.com)